Monday, 2 June 2014

Scottish Independence, Good or Bad, Convince Me !

OK My last post was on the position of Scotland in the Eu now I am looking for answers to another point that I find hard to ignore.
The unit of currency we will use. I argued, in my first post, that if we are to join the Eu we will have to have the Euro as our currency.

(Also if we are not a part of a currency union with the UK this would make joining the Eu, even with the euro, doubly difficult as we would not initially, at best, have a functioning central bank. )

The Euro seems very sensitive to fluctuation due to the fact that there are so many different countries part of this currency union and therefore if one or more countries have problem this will affect the value of the Euro.
We saw that happen when Greece and other countries suffered during the banking problems in recent years.
So, while I am certainly no economist, it seems the Euro would be quite risky for us compared with the pound sterling.
Also if the point of Independence is we in Scotland make our own decisions then, by becoming part of the Euro,  the monetary decisions on the Euro zone will be taken by European Central Bank and as part of the Euro zone we will also have to submit our national budget for approval to the same bank and I don`t see how we can say we are any more independent in this situation.

The best option I can see would be to have a currency union with the UK.
But, understandably, they may not want that. If we got into financial trouble this would affect the pound sterling and since the Bank of England would be our guarantor if we got into financial difficulties it would affect the whole of the British Isles, so would you take that chance if you were the UK why would you invite a foreign country to share your currency ?
Even if they did accept a currency union we would be a minor partner and would still not be able to make independent decisions on some of the most important parts of the economy as we would be out voted on any decisions we wanted, Is that Independence ?

I realise we could use the pound outside of a currency union but that is so complicated and full of pitfalls that I cannot see that being worth considering.

The last option would be setting up our own currency say the Scottish Pound. One problem I see with that is what would the exchange rate on that against the Euro, the US dollar, the UK pound . In other words would the "Scottish Pound" be worth less than the UK pound and that could cause real problems for us buying from the other nations in the UK, or in the world, for example food coming from south of the border or Europe etc.
Since almost every country borrows to pay for the services and infrastructure etc and, like getting a business loan from a lender, if we have our own currency and having no record of borrowing or paying back lenders would this make the interest charged by the global bankers on loans to Scotland be higher than at present. At present the Bank of England is our lender of last resort but outside of a currency union with the UK who would be our lender of last resort (ie who would guarantee our loans would be paid back to lenders).

As I said previously this is written from "the man in the street" perspective so no doubt there will be some of you who are experts in global fiscal arrangements who can advise me if I am wrong in my suppositions and perhaps tempt me away from the NO camp.


 

 

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